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In the universally acclaimed and award-winning The Bottom Billion, Paul Collier reveals that fifty failed states--home to the poorest one billion people on Earth--pose the central challenge of the developing world in the twenty-first century. The book shines much-needed light on this group of small nations, largely unnoticed by the industrialized West, that are dropping further and further behind the majority of the world's people, often falling into an absolute decline in living standards. A struggle rages within each of these nations between reformers and corrupt leaders--and the corrupt are winning. Collier analyzes the causes of failure, pointing to a set of traps that ensnare these countries, including civil war, a dependence on the extraction and export of natural resources, and bad governance. Standard solutions do not work, he writes; aid is often ineffective, and globalization can actually make matters worse, driving development to more stable nations. What the bottom billion need, Collier argues, is a bold new plan supported by the Group of Eight industrialized nations. If failed states are ever to be helped, the G8 will have to adopt preferential trade policies, new laws against corruption, new international charters, and even conduct carefully calibrated military interventions. Collier has spent a lifetime working to end global poverty. In The Bottom Billion, he offers real hope for solving one of the great humanitarian crises facing the world today.
"Terrifically readable."
--Time.com
"Set to become a classic. Crammed with statistical nuggets and common sense, his book should be compulsory reading."
--The Economist
"If Sachs seems too saintly and Easterly too cynical, then Collier is the authentic old Africa hand: he knows the terrain and has a keen ear.... If you've ever found yourself on one side or the other of those arguments--and who hasn't?--then you simply must read this book."
--Niall Ferguson, The New York Times Book Review
"Rich in both analysis and recommendations.... Read this book. You will learn much you do not know. It will also change the way you look at the tragedy of persistent poverty in a world of plenty."
--Financial Times

Customer Reviews:

• Indispensable Reading
  The Bottom Billion by Paul Collier is the most important book to appear in many years on the challenge of raising the world's poorest peoples, many of whom live in Africa, from persistent poverty. Although based on substantial primary research, it is a highly readable volume. It is certain to change the way many development practitioners, and concerned individuals, think about globalization and underdevelopment.
  
  Richard Joseph, Northwestern University, Illinois, USA...more info
• inspiring...
  absolutely the best book on development policy I have read. I am an economjst and I have at times worked for the World Bank Nd IMF but I have never reached the clarity that Paul Collier provides. every head of state needs his briefing....more info
• finally, a compelling, nuanced, evidence-based treatise on how to help the very poorest
  Collier has two recommendations for helping the poor: "narrow the target and broaden the instruments." Narrowing the target means focusing not on the five billion people in the "developing world," for four billion of those people live in countries that are already growing, many of them very quickly. One billion of the world's people (70% of whom are in Africa) are in countries that are going nowhere fast, except - in some cases - down. Broadening the instruments means shifting focus from aid to an array of policy instruments: better delivery of aid, occasional military intervention, international charters, and smarter trade policy.
  
  The most frustrating element of recent books on economic development is that they wildly overstate. Jeffrey Sachs, in The End of Poverty, promises that we can eradicate poverty with a few simple (if not easy) steps; and William Easterly, in The White Man's Burden, tells us aid is a disaster (with some tiny caveats at the end). Collier offers the nuanced voice that has been missing. He draws on decades of his and others' careful research to explain four traps that keep most of the bottom billion in captivity and why globalization as it is currently configured will do little for these poorest nations.
  
  He goes on to explore how each of a whole array of policy instruments (including but not limited to aid) can play a key role in helping the bottom billion get on track towards growth. He explains what kinds of aid are most likely to help post-conflict societies and corrupt societies, how the WTO could actually play a useful role in helping the poorest, how to credibly increase private investment, and where military intervention might actually work. Collier's recommendations feel the most plausible of any out there.
  
  Collier brings credibility to the table with non-technical descriptions of many of his studies as well as anecdotes of challenging Kenya's ex-President Moi on his corrupt agricultural policies or asking Nigeria's finance minister about obstacles to reform. The research is not unassailable (for example, when he calculates the cost of a failing state), but he has spent years using the best data and methods available to get at answers to completely intractable questions: the results are at the very least worth weighing carefully.
  
  The book has no notes except a heavily abridged list of Collier's studies at the end. Some endnotes with better references for those who would like to examine the research more carefully would improve the volume.
  
  Despite that minor critique, this is a readable volume (under 200 pages) with some of the best analysis on economic development that I have read. Nicholas Kristof, the New York Times columnist, calls The Bottom Billion "the best book on international affairs so far this year." He's right.
  
  [The Kristof quote is from "Africa's World War," New York Times, June 14, 2007. If I haven't convinced you to read the book, then read Niall Ferguson's review in the New York Times ("The Least Among Us," 1 July 2007) or Martin Wolf's review in the Financial Times ("How the bottom billion are trapped," 13 May 2007). Both are available on-line.]...more info
• Objectivity + Readability = Must Read
  The previous reviews have done a solid job explaining the concepts. I will agree that the lack of citations is annoying, but with some unnecessary effort, you can find the citations you want from his website.
  
  This book is not only fascinating and thought-provoking, but very easy to read. Collier distills concepts that are broad, deep and complicated like few writers I have come across. He is probably an excellent teacher because he can translate his knowledge into language I can understand.
  
  The big reason to buy this book is that he does a great job explaining exactly why being resource-rich is a curse. Others have alluded to this phenomenon, but Collier is the first to really impact my understanding of the issue. He also explains why electoral democracies with poor checks and balances are actually worse at dealing with this curse than autocracies.
  
  The good news is that full-fledged liberal democracies with strong checks on executive spending are able to out-compete them both.
  
  This book is refreshing because he is not a polemic loud-mouth like so many writers on politics, aid and development. He is very conscious of over-reach and he is very measured in his praise and condemnation. He seems like a reasonable guy with a ton of experience and some very good ideas about helping make the world a better place.
  
  The book is only 188 pages, just buy it already. You won't regret it.
  ...more info
• Picking through the preconceptions
  When it comes to problems afflicting the third world, there are a lot of popular misconceptions and misunderstandings as to what is necessary. In this fantastic book, Paul Collier runs through the myths and the realities of the situation.
  
  Some of the most popular misconceptions regarding the third world is regarding the use of aid. Although Collier acknowledges that aid has it's uses, it is most certainly not a miracle cure all. As well as making local goods less competitive it will also increase the likelyhood of a coup d'¨¦tat in an underdeveloped nation as rebel groups see aid money as a potential reward for overthrowing the government.
  
  The argument for fair trade is also skillfully and intelligently undermined (althought this may not make pleasant reading for some of those involved in this campaign). Collier's studies have determined that despite the superficial benefits, fair trade only encourages third world economies to continue producing nothing but the same product all the time. This robs these economies of the diversity of exports that is so crucial to their growth.
  
  Collier points out that there is no greater trap for bottomo billion countries than the conflict trap. Indeed about 50% of the wars that start in bottom billion countries are relapses into old wars. Here Collier offers a well thought out break from conventional wisdom. Usually all post-war aid is dumped into a country in the two or three years immediately following the conflict. However these years are typically the most disorganised and are most prone to wasted expenditure. The wasted expenditure and resultant poverty can often plunge the country back into war. Collier convincingly argues two solutions, one popular, one unpopular. The extension of aid to ten years after a conflict will be a popular idea and clearly a relatively effective one. However his suggestion of military intervention is likely to be less popular. We must not let Iraq blind us in this respect. The U.N. has done and continues to do effective work in this sphere and perhaps this will help the bottom billion citizens on the road to development.
  
  Ultimately it was very difficult for Paul Collier to anatomise all the problems of the bottom billion in an individual book and it is equally difficult to anatomise his book in this review. All that I must really say is that it is a fantastic and well thouoght out read and enthralling for anyone with an interest in economics and politics....more info
• The people of the Bottom Billion countries deserve better
  The Bottom Billion is a useful but flawed book. The people and countries on which Mr. Collier focuses his analysis certainly deserve the attention. One of humanity's great challenges is how to raise their living standards. I started this book with high hopes, and found the discussion of the four "traps" and of the disappointing results of globalization worthwhile.
  
  But the author's tone is often combative and sneering, he greatly oversimplifies the results of the social science research studies reported in the book, and ignores the extensive analysis criticizing the methods and performance of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank over the past several decades. It's nice of him to mention that Joe Stiglitz hired him at the World Bank; it would have been more appropriate to acknowledge Stiglitz' powerful critique of the IMF's performance. And his support for the militarization of foreign aid is nothing short of astounding. Yes, on occasion a military solution might be needed to stabilize a failed state...but this is simply too costly to be a general solution to the problems of these countries.
  
  I must also mention Collier's support for the Multilateral Agreement on Investment, or MAI. Should countries (states), even poor ones, be able to regulate the activities and investments of multinational corporations? The MAI, which was proposed by a group from the OECD in 1995, was withdrawn in 1998 when it became clear that the agreement would have limited the ability of signatory countries to control the activities of foreign corporations. Collier predictably bashes the NGO's that opposed the MAI.
  
  And it's a small thing, but Collier repeatedly uses Iraq as an example. But Iraq was a middle-income country--at least before we invaded it--so using it as an exemplar of the approaches he suggests is simply sloppy social science. ...more info
• Poorest billion
  What do we do with them?
  
  Prof. Collier of Oxford University, has done years of research, publishing, conferences, on this topic. Yet, one-size- fit-all solution never came up.
  
  With civil war, ethnic conflict, fighting for natural resources, bad governance, bad neighbors, military power, aids from G8, law, trade policy issues, one would think that the solution is not possible.
  
  What is needed is to have a strong and capable leadership at the top. With a strong leader, the country can change.
  
  We need to focus on a group of countries at a time. G8 countries are drilling oil, gas, and minerals in Africa now. China recently sent 500,000 to Africa to build highway, bridges, telephone systems, etc.
  It is possible to accomplish.
  
  But this book does not include any of the African success stories.
  Everyone knows the problem. But the solution is the most important for the bottom billions.
  ...more info
• Delightful and mostly intelligent
  This very eloquent and mostly thoughtful book about the world's poorest countries will offend ideologues of all stripes. Collier's four different explanations for poverty traps (war, presence of natural resources, bad neighbors blocking trade routes, and corruption) clearly place him as a fox rather than a hedgehog without being complex enough that they can rationalize any result (although they can probably rationalize more results than an ideal set of explanations would). He blames both villains in poor countries and thoughtless voters in wealthy countries.
  Collier sees that globalization has benefited most nations, but provides plausible mechanisms by which globalization can harm some (e.g. through enabling capital flight).
  Collier mostly thinks like a good economist, but his prior work for the World Bank biases him to be overly optimistic about improving such institutions. He recognizes the incentives that cause bureaucrats to be too risk averse, but then makes a cryptic claim that the British government understands the problem and is spending money to fix it. He vaguely implies that this is a venture capital-like fund, but fails to say whether they replicated the key venture capital feature of providing unusually large rewards to employees who produce unusually good results. His silence on this subject leads me to suspect that he's asking us to blindly trust institutions that have a long track record of avoiding results-oriented incentives.
  He also shows misplaced faith in authority when he tries to calculate the value to the world of rescuing a failed state by using George Bush's calculation that the benefits of installing a good government in Iraq exceeded the expected $100 billion cost. That might be a good argument if Bush had been spending his own money to help Iraq, but his willingness to spend other peoples' money doesn't say much.
  Collier says it is "surely irresponsible" to leave Somalia with no government. Yet most evidence I've seen (http://www.peterleeson.com/Better_Off_Stateless.pdf) says Somalia improved by most standard criteria such as life expectancy when it had no government. I don't know how reliable that evidence is, but Collier's apparent assumption that we don't need to look at the evidence makes his opinion suspect.
  The book's biggest shortcoming is the absence of anything resembling footnotes. Collier implies this is too make the book more readable, but he could have put a section of notes at the end referencing individual pages without altering the main text in any way. Instead he only gives a fairly large list of papers he's written. But I can't tell without tracking down and reading a large fraction of them which of them if any support his controversial claims (e.g. that giving money to the poorest countries helps them a bit but that doubling it would reach a limit beyond which further money would be wasted).
  But his advice is good enough that its value doesn't depend much on those controversial claims being right. Following his advice to condition aid on results (e.g. sending money to countries when they stop wars, cutting it off if they have a coup or resume war) would provide incentives that would make aid beneficial.
  I had previously suspected that large countries have tended to escape poverty more easily in the past few decades because "aid" organizations had enough money to prop up small corrupt governments but not enough to affect a government such as India's. Collier presents a good alternative theory: being a large country pretty much guarantees access to the sea, and by increasing the number of neighbors, increases the chance of having a neighbor which is open to trade.
  Another good tidbit is this point on Fair Trade: farmers "get charity as long as they stay producing the crops that have locked them into poverty."...more info
• Intelligent and Intelligible
  Collier begins by telling us that poverty is falling rapidly for about 80% of the world. The real crisis lies in a group of about 50 failing states (70% in Africa, the rest in Asia - eg. Afghanistan, with a few in South America) comprising the bottom billion. The corrupt in these nations are winning, and civil war, dependence on extraction and export of natural resources, and poor governance acerbate problems. Their decline is not just relative - often it is absolute.
  
  These bottom-billion nations are small, and 73% are in or recently were in a civil war. Low income and slow growth make a country prone to civil war, as well as likely to also have weak government. Raw material dependence (eg. oil, diamonds) is another factor. Political repression and income inequality do not seem to be factor, though ethnic strife is where one faction is dominant.
  
  Civil wars average six years in length, even longer in the poorest countries. Heavy raw material exports create the "Dutch disease" - currency rises, making other export activities uncompetitive. The more ethnically-diverse a population, the worse democracy performs in a resource-rich environment as "team voting" predominates (instead of competency).
  
  Being landlocked makes a country dependent on ones' neighbors infrastructure, though it also presents a marketing opportunity if that nation is a buyer. Switzerland benefits, Uganda does not.
  
  Successful turnarounds are more likely with a greater percentage of the population having at least a secondary education; a larger population also helps. Democracy, however, does not help.
  
  The poorest nations "missed the boat" in the 1990s - Asian nations now have economies of scale as well as low wages. Rich nation's protecting their agricultural industries undermine aid programs to the poorest nations.
  
  Finally, "The Bottom Billion" goes on to make suggestions. The bad news, however, as Collier points out, is that the real cure has to come from within....more info
• Thought Provoking
  I really enjoyed this book. Paul Collier has taken what is a very complex issue and presented it in a concise view of the situation of the "Bottom Billion" which many of us do not really understand. Collier and his colleagues have done an enormous amount of research and analysis and have distilled that into a compelling read for anyone who worries about what's happening to our world.
  
  To me, the book shed light on the difficulty faced by the "Bottom Billion" and how, with the best of intentions, Aid organisations, the World Bank, IMF, European Union, USA, regional bodies etc can still not achieve an improvement in the lives of these people. Coordination is the key, and that is far easier said than done - and I am just wondering how the author is working to get this "Bottom Billion" discussion tabled. It would be great to follow any progress made - and I hope, for the sake of a billion lives, there is progress....more info
• Development economics that we can all understand
  This book summarizes a career's worth of research in a format that both explains issues and makes suggestions in a way that does not require economics jargon translation. It is the best work I've seen that describes the effect of individual and combined local and world factors on the plight of the 'bottom Billion" mainly in land locked African nations. Without assigning blame Collier recounts the history, economic, geographic, social and leadership factors that trap these nations and make those of us committed to helping them so perplexed about why aid has not worked. He offers suggestions for growth that leave some room for optimism. What raises the work above well written editorial to convincing evidence is that Colliers's writings and suggestions are based upon consolidation of research results (that he briefly cites at the end of the work) over a long period covering the measured influence of many factors . Besides the pithy and well drawn content the writing is clear , straightforward and entertaining making it enjoyable to read....more info
• Excellent work
  Should be mandatory reading for our elected officials.
  
  Throw in Tom Barnett's two books and I think we will make better foreign policy decisions as a country.
  
  A must read.......more info
• Pragmatic Model
  A pragmatic, empirically based and for the most part apolitical view of development which stands out in a field blessed and cursed with idealism. The distinction of the bottom billion versus the typical 5 billion that is defined as developing is a critical one. This bottom billion is not "developing" and for the most part is regressing relative to the rest of the world.
  
  Unfortunately once in this club it is very difficult to get out as so many factors work against you and sometimes that includes the people and methods intended to assist. Dr. Collier presents four traps that have kept most of these countries from escaping poverty: conflict trap, natural resource trap, landlocked/bad neighbors, and bad governance. Many countries are trapped by more than one of these. His logic framing this theory is very sound. He presents the potential tools to assist getting out of the traps as well: aid, military intervention, laws and charters, and trade policy. However each of these can have either positive or negative effects and he presents data to support both. The distinguishing factors are in the details of when, how and the who is behind the application of these tools. In one part of the book he likens development strategy to venture capital strategy where the expectation is to have many losers and a few big winners that make it a worthy and beneficial exercise. Unfortunately the present state of aid disbursement tend to either measure purely on money distributed without regard to results or one that is so focused on results that incentivizes aid towards more safe havens that are typically not in the most needy category.
  
  The bottom line from "The Bottom Billion" is that there are no easy answers and unfortunately much of the work in this area has been very black and white. More dollars for aid is needed or aid is always detrimental, trade takes advantage of the poor or trade is always the answer. Unsuccessful military interventions mean all intervention is bad and so on and so on. That's where a pragmatic and data centered approach helps. The book provides some very useful advice in developing development strategy that has a shot at working.
  ...more info
• Excellent Book Should Be Read By Everyone Concerned with Poverty
  Collier is a serious scholar in the world of development and here he has written a very important book. Here is the basic argument - while it sucks to be poor in countries like India, India is heading for relative prosperity. Where is really, really sucks to be poor is in a number of countries, concentrated in Africa where there is little hope of breaking out of a cycle of severe poverty. Collier pinpoints four ways in which these countries stay at the bottom - (1) they are racked by civil wars; (2) they're rich in a specific natural resource which stifles economic group in other areas; (3) they are surrounded by awful neighbors; and/or (4) they are a small country which is consistently horrifically governed. Collier proposes a number of concrete steps to deal with some of these problems, steps which I find to be realistic if perhaps politically unlikely at times. For example, Collier is totally in support of military intervention, of course he thinks there is a right way and wrong way to do it, but still, you're not hearing Jeff Sachs talk about sending in guns to cure poverty and with the disaster that has been the Iraq war, I think it will be a long time before the developed world is interested in dangerous humanitarian missions.
  
  This is the book of a man who has spent a long time in world of bureaucracies whose mandate is to fight poverty, and some of Collier's ideas are a bit gun-ho in reaction to what he rightly thinks is a lack of will power from the developed world. I don't think all of his ideas are good ones, and many of them I think are unlikely given the developed world's current lack of commitment to fighting poverty, but if you have any interest in development and poverty reduction you have to read this book.
  
  ...more info
• Escaping the Poverty Trap
  Of the 6 billion people that inhabit the earth, it has been estimated that about 1 billion live in wealthy countries, 4 billion live in developing countries, and about 1 billion live in countries whose economies are either stagnant or declining. About 70 percent of those in the last category are in Africa. Now comes Paul Collier, director of the Center for the Study of African Economies at Oxford University, adding his name to the list of those who have attempted to formulate a strategy for lifting the bottom billion out of poverty. (Others include Jeffrey Sachs in The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time and William Easterly in The White Man's Burden: Why the West's Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good.)
  
  Sachs is an optimist who believes that aid, correctly applied, can solve Africa's poverty. Easterly, on the other hand, is a pessimist, but concedes that aid, applied in a piecemeal fashion to see what works, can work. Collier is more of Easterly's persuasion, but differs in that he, Collier, is more interventionist.
  
  According to Collier, the bottom billion live in "trapped countries," that have no visible means of improving their lot. He identifies 4 elements that cause countries to become trapped:
  
  1)Civil war. Three-quarters of the bottom billion have been through or are currently experiencing civil war. Civil wars usually occur where there are large numbers of unemployed and uneducated young men, and where there are ethnic imbalances.
  
  2)Natural resource curse. Countries with large amounts of natural resources tend not to develop the skill sets of their people, and they tend not to hold democratic elections. Corrupt governments and impoverished and violent masses are usually the result.
  
  3)Landlocked countries. This is odd because many of the countries in Africa are coastel or on major waterways. Granted, being in a landlocked country is economically disadvantageous.
  
  4)Bad governance. Bad governance is the hallmark of trapped countries often caused by elements 1 and 2.
  
  Collier points out that aid is not a good idea since it works like the resource curse. It supports kleptocrats without making them accountable to their people. Indeed aid can retard economic development.
  
  Furthermore, it has been established that most poor countries that have emerged from poverty have done so through labor-intensive export industries. The problem for Africa is that China and others are currently doing this making it very competitive. Collier thinks that best way for rich countries to foster growth in Africa is to eliminate or reduce tariffs on their exports. This prescription would probably fall on deaf ears in rich countries who are forever trying to protect their own industries.
  
  More controversially, Collier argues that foreign military intervention would be helpful in stabilizing countries wracked by civil war. Currently, that would be a non-starter given the events in Iraq. There is, however evidence to support his claim: i.e. Sierra Leone.
  
  The best advice that Collier gives is requiring trapped countries to comply with international laws and regulations in exchange for aid. Call it imperialism if you will, but the practice of the European Union of requiring recipients of aid to sign charters for better governance is really the best way to alleviate poverty. The European way of soft power is so far the most effective way to make development aid work....more info
• Instruments to End the World's Worst Poverty
  Maybe you let your subscription to Journal of African Economics expire. Maybe you haven't leafed through the latest Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. Pity that. But, Paul Collier's "The Bottom Billion" bridges the gap between the glossy "solutions" to world poverty that adorn t-shirts, and the dense academic prescriptions that end up in these kinds of journals. Sort of like Freakanomics meets Oxfam.
  
  Collier breaks the book up into two sections. The first talks about four traps the people in our poorest countries (the bottom billion): having bad neighbors, the resource curse, bad governance, and conflict.
  
  Some of this is merely a summary of what is evident in newspapers or books today. Jeffrey Sachs has made the problems of the resource curse pretty well known, and people on the left and the right are always talking about bad governance. Obviously, conflict is a problem.
  
  The issue of being landlocked with bad neighbors makes some common sense. It is different trying to be an export business in Missouri, where access to ports and airports is without obstacle, than it is trying to access foreign markets from inside the interior of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
  
  The second part of the book talks about how each "trap" imposes a different set of solutions for its resolution. For example, export-led development, while largely the mantra of NAFTA and GATT, is not effective in either resource-driven economies or in post-conflict societies. It's not easy in landlocked communities, either, although with infrastructure investment, there are opportunities.
  
  I think that there is a temptation to view post-colonial development in the frame of a particular country. Right now, Collier says, that country is Iraq. Iraq, in this book's analysis, is a resource-rich country (trap) with deserts and access to ports (good) but some very bad governance (related to resources, but also bad on its own.) The overarching solution was military intervention, with a second emphasis on the extension of democracy. Now that Iraq has failed, both are probably less than appealing in popular politics. That can be a problem, though, as that is what allows another Rwanda to occur. When we flee Somalia after 19 deaths, it sends a message to thugs.
  
  Collier has a few things to say, mostly negative, about some of the most popular ideas in recent years. He is not too hot on "Fair Trade," and he wonders why the West has to lead with solutions that reflect their interests (environment, labor) when the bottom billion really want better governance.
  
  This is a good book for affluent Westerners who want to expatiate their guilt.
  
  ...more info
• It Will Challenge Your Assumptions
  The Bottom Billion will challenge your assumptions and focus your mind on the problem of the world's poorest. Not just the world's poor, usually estimated at 5 billion, but those who are really at the bottom with no upward trajectory. Collier organizes the problems of the world's poor in different categories, which he calls "traps." These include being landlocked, chronic conflict, natural resources, and bad governance.
  
  His remedies include aid, international charters to improve governance, trade, and military intervention. But each proposal offers some new twist. For example, he does not blindly call for WTO-style free trade, but actually wants to see a manipulation of trade barriers to protect the bottom billion from competing with many Asian countries.
  
  Collier uses statistical analysis to demonstrate his points and make his conclusions. In some cases, since the book is written for a lay person like me, it glosses over the inputs used to figure out the numbers. I was not certain how certain policies were weighed against certain outcomes, such as military intervention. But the thoughts were still interesting ones.
  
  Collier also does not list the countries in his bottom billion, though emphasizes it is not just African nations he is concerned about. But since most, if not all, of his examples were from Africa it is hard to figure out what other countries he is concerned about, Bangladesh excluded. He could also give some examples of countries that have just broken out of the bottom billion category, perhaps Ghana and others, as illustrative of the path that needs to be followed.
  
  But overall the book is compact and interesting. It offers a grab bag of potential polices and emphasizes that there is no one answer. Global growth for all requires cooperation within individual governments and across national lines. Increased aid alone will not get the job done....more info
• Between a Rock and a Hard Place
  Developing countries are quite unlike Tolstoi's characterization of happy and unhappy families. Each happy country looks different from the other, and there are vast differences between China, India, Brazil, and other developing success stories, but there is a similarity between unhappy countries--countries that are not only failing to develop, but also going downward and falling apart. Together, these countries have a combined population of about one billion people, and what happen to this bottom billion has important consequences for the whole world.
  
  Paul Collier pioneered the burgeoning research on the economic causes of conflicts, and his work on civil wars has proved quite controversial among political science experts. Those experts tend to interpret civil wars in terms of heroic struggles motivated by grievances or ethnic strifes reflecting deeply-rooted hatreds. The author's research shows that rebel groups are usually doing well out of war, and that greed often trumps grievance as the underlying cause of conflict. He proves this by statistical analysis, showing for instance that there is basically no relationship between political repression and the risk of civil war, or between ethnic fragmentation and conflict (although ethnic polarization does play a part).
  
  Conflict is not the only trap. The author also goes through the natural resource trap, the trap of being landlocked with bad neighbors, and the trap of bad governance in a small country. Those traps often reinforce each other, and their combined effects condemn the bottom countries to the slow lane. In each case, Paul Collier not only successfully reviews the existing literature, but also offers original insights drawn from his own research. For instance, he demonstrates that far from being immune from the resource curse, democracies may create additional risks by inducing a phenomenon of "survival of the fattest". He is, to my knowledge, the first expert to point out that diversification of resource providers away from the Middle East in the name of energy security may actually increase the risk of disruption on world markets by creating new zones of instability: "Shifting our source of supply simply will not work as a security measure if the resource curse shifts with it."
  
  This research has direct policy relevance. By putting a price tag on the cost of a typical civil war (about 64 billion) or the gain of a sustained turnaround placing a formerly failed state on a secure path (about 100 billion), the author allows decision-makers to base their decisions on cost-benefit analysis. He shows that some interventions have a very large pay-off: the British Operation Palliser in Sierra Leone was a huge success, worth perhaps thirty times its cost. The protection offered by the French against military coups in Africa, now tempered by a hesitation to intervene, was perhaps also worthwhile. The European Union's new rapid reaction force may play a similar role in the future by offering a guarantee to democratic governments conditional upon internationally certified free and fair elections. "Making coups history" is certainly more controversial than the global rally against poverty, but may in the end contribute more to the plight of the bottom billion than the doubling of aid flows.
  
  Indeed, the author shows that aid offers only part of the solution, and the way it is currently managed makes it in certain cases part of the problem. Rich countries and development agencies need to narrow the target by focusing more on the bottom billion, while at the same time broadening the instruments in order to consider policy tools other than aid. This process also characterizes the author's own research, which increases the focus of economic analysis by using cutting-edge statistical tools, while broadening the scope of relevant issues, in order to inform the decisions of policy makers. To give an example, people often wonder how much of Africa's wealth has fled the continent, or how much aid leaks into military spending. Paul Collier not only addresses these issues, he answers them by giving numerical estimates (respectively 38% and 11%).
  
  The book also contributes to the broader debate on globalization. The author has little tolerance for the protest crowds of anti-globalizers who besiege international financial institutions and G8 summits. He calls them by their name: they are anti-capitalists, and they have little interest in helping poor countries benefit from the system that they are fighting against. He also challenge people who care about global poverty but are driven by slogans, images, and anger, instead of rational analysis. But he is no rosy optimist either, and he offers a sobering view on global economic integration. Although globalization has worked wonders to lift a vast portion of humanity out of poverty, it is now making things harder for latecomers, who now face formidable competitors in China or in India. In his own words: "When Mauritius escaped the traps in the 1980s it rocketed to middle-income levels; when neighboring Madagascar finally escaped the traps two decades later, there was no rocket."
  
  The Bottom Billion therefore opens horizons across political divides. To quote from the introduction: "The left will find that approaches it has discounted, such as military interventions, trade, and encouraging growth, are critical means to the end it has long embraced. The right will find that, unlike the challenge of global poverty reduction, the problem of the bottom billion will not be fixed automatically by global growth, and that neglect now will become a security nightmare for the world of our children."...more info
• Will stimulate your thinking
  
  I love books like this. I am not a development expert not involved in international business nor government. Just a average middle class guy who tries to think beyond the bounds of my little world.
  
  Can't argue whether anything he put on these pages is wrong or right. It's engaging writing and I often found myself pausing to ponder some point Collier makes. All-in-all, a great read.
  
  One additional note: The first chapter is very wonkish...lots of statistics and figures. It may put you off and keep you from reading further....if so just skip to Chapter 3. You can still get the gist of Collier's argument....more info
• Elegantly brilliant, incisive clarity, quite extraordinary
  I read a lot, almost entirely in non-fiction, and this book is easily one of the "top ten" on the future and one of the top three on extreme poverty, in my own limited reading.
  
  The other three books that have inspired me in this specific area are:
  The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid
  Creating a World Without Poverty: Social Business and the Future of Capitalism
  The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time
  
  There is an enormous amount of actionable wisdom in this book, which is deceptively easy to read and digest. The author's bottom line is clear early on:
  
  A. The fifty failing states at the bottom, most in Africa, others in Central Asia, are a cesspool of misery that is terribly dangerous to all others, exporting disease, crime, and conflict.
  
  B. The responsibility for peace to enable prosperity cannot be expected from within--it must be provided as a common good from outside. In support of this point, toward the end of the book, the author posits a 15:1 return on investment from $250M a year in investment and aid, mostly technical assistance.
  
  This book is a superb guide for regional authorities and international coalitions with respect to the value of non-military interventions.
  The author provides compelling yet concise overviews of the four traps that affect the billion at the bottom:
  
  A. The Conflict Trap
  B. The Natural Resource Export Trap
  C. Landlocked in a Bad Neighbors Trap
  D. Poor and Corrupt Governance
  
  The author describes the need for a "whole of government" approach, both among those seeking to deliver assistance, and those receiving it.
  I have a note, a new insight at least to me, that AIDs proliferated so quickly across Africa because of the combination of mass rape followed by mass migration. There are many other gifted turns of phrase throughout.
  A study on the cost of a Kalashnikov is most helpful. The author tells us that the legacy of any war is the proliferation of inexpensive small arms into the open market.
  
  Across the book the author points out that the gravest threat to governance and stability within any fragile economy is a standing army.
  Each of the traps is discussed in depth.
  
  The middle of the book outlines nine-strategies for the land-locked who suffer from being limited to their neighbors as a marketplace, rather than the world as a whole.
  
  1. Work with neighbors to create cross-border transport infrastructure
  2. Work to improve neighbors' economies for mutual benefit
  3. Work to improve access to coastal areas (the author points out that the sea is so essential, that landlocked countries should not* be* countries, they should be part of a larger country that borders the sea)
  4. Become a haven of peace, providing financial and other services.
  5. Don't be air-locked or electronically-locked (the first study of the Marine Corps that I led in 1988-1989 found that half of the countries of concern did not have suitable ports but all had ample C-130 capable airfields).
  6. Encourage remittances
  7. Create transparent investment-friendly environment for resource prospecting
  8. Focus on rural development
  9. Attract aid
  
  Toward the end of the book I am struck by the author's pointed (and documented) exclusion of democracy and civil rights as necessary conditions for reform. Instead, large populations, secondary education, and a recent civil war (opening paths to change), are key.
  $64 billion is the cost to the region of a civil war, with $7 billion being the minimal expected return on investment for preventing a civil war in the country itself.
  
  Bad policies come with a sixty year hang-over.
  
  Asia is the solid middle and makes trade a marginal and unlikely option for rescuing Africa UNLESS there are a combination of trade barriers against imports from Asia, and unreciprocal trade preferences from richer countries. In the context of globalization, only capital and people offer hope.
  
  In the author's view, capital is not going to the bottom billion because:
  
  A. Bottom of the barrel risk
  B. Too small to learn about
  C. Genuinely fragile
  
  In terms of human resources, after discussing capital flight, the author concludes that the educated leave as quickly as they can. I am inspired by this discussion to conclude that we need a Manhattan project for Africa, in which a Prosperity Corps of Gray Eagles is incentivized to adopt one of the 50 failed states, and provided with a semblance of normal living and working conditions along with bonuses for staying in-country for ten years or more. As I reflect on how the USA has spent $30 billion for "diplomacy" in 2007, and over $975 billion for waging war, (such that the Comptroller General just resigned from a fifteen year appointment after telling Congress the USA is "insolvent") this begs public outrage and engagement.
  
  As the book makes its way to the conclusion the author's prose grabs me:
  
  "We should be helping the heroes" attempting reform
  
  We are guilty in the West of "inertia, ignorance, and incompetence."
  
  The "cesspool of misery....is both terrible....and dangerous."
  
  Several other noteworthy highlights (no substitute for buying and reading the book in its entirety:
  
  Aid does offer a 1% growth kick
  
  Aid bureaucracy, despite horror stories, adds real value in contrast to funds that vanish into the corrupt local government
  
  Misdirection of unrestricted funds leads to militarization and instability.
  
  The author touches briefly on the enormous value that industry can offer when it is finally incentivized to do so. DeBeers and its certification process are cited with respect, perhaps saving diamonds from going the way of fur.
  
  The author stresses that top-down transparency enables bottom-up public scrutiny and the two together help drive out corruption (something Lawrence Lessig has committed the remainder of his life to).
  
  There is an excellent section on irresponsible NGOs, notably Christian Aid, feared by the government and not understood by the public.
  I put the book down with a very strong feeling of hope.
  
  Other books I recommend, in addition to the three above:
  A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility--Report of the Secretary-General's High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change
  Deliver Us from Evil: Peacekeepers, Warlords and a World of Endless Conflict
  Confessions of an Economic Hit Man
  The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism
  The Unconquerable World: Power, Nonviolence, and the Will of the People
  The leadership of civilization building: Administrative and civilization theory, symbolic dialogue, and citizen skills for the 21st century
  Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, Third Edition
  
  ...more info